Beyond Calibration: Temporal LLM Confidence Assessment Across Languages and Local Settings

arXiv:2610.27702v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models are expected to estimate their own uncertainty, with confidence signals used to guide retrieval, adaptive compute allocation, routing, and selective abstention. We investigate whether confidence signals measured at different temporal stages of problem solving encode distinct forms of epistemic information and remain reliable beyond English-centric settings. Inspired by classical meta-memory theory, we distinguish anticipatory pre-solve confidence (Feeling-of-Knowing, FOK) from retrospective post-solve confidence (Judgement

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