Beyond Single-Pathogen Forecasts: Predicting Shared Respiratory Hospital Burden from Influenza, COVID-19, and RSV

arXiv:2610.16074v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Co-circulating influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) create a shared hospital-admission burden, because beds, staff, testing capacity, and respiratory support are allocated to total demand rather than to one pathogen at a time. This makes respiratory forecasting a target-construction problem as well as a modeling problem: disease-specific forecasts preserve attribution, whereas hospitals also need a single planning signal for combined burden. We developed a supervised 1- to 4-week-ahead framework for weekly admissions and com

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