Can an Agent Learn to Predict Its Own Failure? Outcome-Grounded Confidence Calibration in LLM Agents

arXiv:2610.18614v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Controlling an acting LLM agent means deciding, at each step of a long-horizon task, whether to trust its next action, abstain, or hand off to a human. That decision needs a per-step confidence signal predicting whether the current rollout will eventually succeed. The agent's own self-reported verbalized confidence is the natural candidate, but existing reinforcement learning methods calibrate it against the correctness of a decision at the current step. We propose a method to calibrate it against the eventual outcome of a multi-step episode: und

This content is for informational purposes only and is not professional advice. Specifications, prices, plan tiers, and features change frequently and may differ from what is shown here; verify current details on the manufacturer's or company's official page before purchasing. Ratings are based on analysis of published documentation, not independent lab testing.