Capabilities Ain't All You Need: Measuring Propensities in AI

arXiv:2602.18182v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: AI evaluation has primarily focused on measuring capabilities, with formal approaches inspired from Item Response Theory (IRT) being increasingly applied. Yet propensities - the tendencies of models to exhibit particular behaviours - play a central role in determining both performance and safety outcomes. However, traditional IRT describes a model's success on a task as a monotonic function of model capabilities and task demands, an approach unsuited to propensities, where both excess and deficiency can be problematic. Here, we introduc

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