Certified Corruption Budgets: Anytime-Valid Leaderboard Claims under Adaptive Rigging

arXiv:2610.10597v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Public leaderboards for AI models are read continuously, and attackers can see every published standing. Vote rigging, selective disclosure of private variants, and benchmark contamination can each move a ranking. Existing guarantees assume genuine records or bound the corruption per step, which an attacker who corrupts in bursts evades. We introduce the certified corruption budget, a tolerance $\widehat{B}_t$ computed after $t$ records and published with each pairwise claim. With probability at least $1-\alpha$, simultaneously at all times, th

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