Certify the Decision, Not Every Score: Exact Top-k Selection from Few Evaluations

arXiv:2610.14996v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Choosing a few robust algorithms or schedules can require evaluating every candidate under many adverse scenarios, even though an agent only needs to identify the winners. A predictor may suggest those winners, but cannot rule out a surprise in an unevaluated scenario. We introduce Certified Adaptive Selection (CAS), which returns the exact top-$k$ set as soon as remaining uncertainty cannot change it. CAS keeps guaranteed lower and upper bounds on Expected Shortfall (ES), the average loss in the worst scenarios. Its stopping test compares the wo

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