Counterfactual Predictions in Scientific Emulators Without Controlled Experiments

arXiv:2610.02252v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many scientific questions require reasoning about what was never observed: What if the conditions, interventions, or history had been different? Models can predict accurately on observed data yet fail on such what-if queries when correlated inputs are varied independently. A common remedy is to add controlled simulation data in which these factors are explicitly disentangled, but this requires access to a simulator, can be computationally expensive, and inherits the simulator's modeling assumptions. We introduce ReRoute, a framework for targete

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