Hearsay or Fact? How Framing and Elicitation Shape LLM Probability Updates

arXiv:2610.27745v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judgment assistants and as stand-in participants in psychology experiments, yet little is known about how much their probability estimates move in response to a single new piece of information. We pair premise-hypothesis items from $\delta$-SNLI with one strengthener and one weakener each, elicit the prior and the posteriors in separate calls, and measure the directional movement s: the mean posterior change signed by the annotated direction, so that the prior cancels out. We vary whether th

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