Is the Future Predictable? Modeling Future Predictability for Reliable Temporal Reasoning

arXiv:2610.14073v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) remain unreliable when reasoning about the future. Existing models often overlook the difference among future states, committing to specific answers even when the queried facts are inherently volatile. To capture this challenge, we introduce ChronoRegime, a future-oriented temporal reasoning task that requires models to determine whether historical temporal evidence justifies commitment to a future answer. Furthermore, we propose Confidence-Aware Temporal Reasoning (CTR), a framework that estimates future predictabi

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