arXiv: cs.AI preprintsInternational6 November 2026
Multi-Estimate Elicitation Does Not Uniformly Debias Language Model Judgments
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arXiv:2611.00597v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Does eliciting five weighted estimates within a single response consistently improve numerical judgments? We compare direct and multi-estimate elicitation across anchoring, hindsight, base-rate, conjunction, and status-quo/default tasks in six frozen configurations. Each configuration contributes 618 admitted development units and 3,702 admitted formal units; the six-configuration formal cohort contains 22,212 units, including 21 missing outcomes. Of 45 preregistered confirmatory tests across five configurations, 12 reject on complete c
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