Prospective Hindsight: Self-Calibrating Reinforcement Learning via Prediction-Reality Gaps

arXiv:2610.02740v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning for long-horizon agents relies on purely retrospective training signals: credit is assigned only after observing environmental consequences, leaving the agent's belief at action time invisible to the gradient. We introduce Prospective Hindsight (PH), a self-calibrating training principle that augments any retrospective base method with a signal derived from the gap between the agent's prospective prediction (before feedback) and the retrospective evaluation (after feedback). This per-rollout surprise identifies samples wh

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