arXiv: cs.AI preprintsInternational5 November 2026
Risk Control Certifies Rates, Not Magnitudes: An Audit of Selective Fetal Biometry
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arXiv:2611.05851v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prenatal ultrasound biometry must return a head circumference (HC) and refuse when the image cannot support one. Selective prediction trades coverage against error, but its finite-sample guarantees bound the rate of gross errors, not their magnitude. We audit a tool-grounded biometry pipeline on two separately pre-registered four-way splits of the 999 labelled HC18 images, retraining the segmenter three times on each. Calibrating the contour-completeness threshold by exact Clopper-Pearson risk control returns a certificate indistinguishable from
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