SafeAdapt-Poker: Counterfactual Risk Calibration for Budgeted Adaptation under Opponent Shift

arXiv:2610.20473v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Opponent histories can mislead after behavioral shifts. SafeAdapt-Poker formulates budgeted adaptation under opponent shift as a dual-counterfactual sequential-control problem using only information available before each decision. At each decision the controller asks two distinct questions: what local downside a deviation from the frozen anchor would induce under matched legal continuations, and what future adaptation value would be lost by consuming part of the remaining deviation budget now. The first question is answered by a monotone stra

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