SFT Leaves a Reproducible Signature in Activation Geometry: Calibrating Post-Training Interpretability Against Run-to-Run Noise

arXiv:2610.17093v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A model diff credits post-training with whatever separates a base checkpoint from one post-trained descendant, presuming a rerun would land close by. On the sparse co-activation graph of Qwen3-1.7B it does not: two LoRA-SFT reruns sit over half as far apart as either sits from the base. We score each base-to-post contrast against the run-to-run band of its own recipe, and show that $k$ runs certify no better than $p=1/(k+1)$ under run exchangeability, however large the effect, so the band $z$-score is a descriptive scale. SFT leaves a large, repr

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