Towards Reliable Truth-Aligned Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

arXiv:2604.00445v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Uncertainty estimation (UE) aims to quantify uncertainty in large language model (LLM) outputs to flag potential hallucinations and support reliable deployment. However, UE metrics often exhibit unstable performance across models and datasets, limiting their practical utility. We formalise this phenomenon as proxy failure, arising because UE metrics are derived from model behaviour rather than being explicitly grounded in factual correctness. We show that when mutual information between a UE score and correctness is low, the score's discrimin

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