Truth in Contrast: Calibrated Factual Evidence from Language Model Likelihoods

arXiv:2610.23527v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) encode substantial factual knowledge. Yet, estimating confidence in factual claims reliably remains challenging. We study likelihood-based factual confidence from the complementary perspectives of discrimination and calibration across multilingual factual statements. Specifically, we instantiate contrastive generative likelihoods as Contrastive Factual Evidence (CFE), which compares the likelihood of the same claim under competing factual and non-factual conditions, and derive its probabilistic counterpart, the Cont

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