When Does an Added Planning Capability Create Operational Value? An Observable Evidence Standard

arXiv:2610.27305v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Industrial artificial intelligence (AI) planning systems combine predictive models, optimization logic, controls, and governance rules, but improvement in the complete policy does not show whether one addition made an independent contribution or whether that contribution justifies its burden. We address this attribution problem with an observable evidence standard that separates opportunity to act, executed-plan change, operational consequence, equivalence, uncertainty, and operating scope. Using forecast-to-plan replay on Favorita, M5, and Walma

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