Does an Agent's History Tell You When Compaction Will Hurt? A Modest, Bounded Effect on the TRACE Paired-Replay Corpus

arXiv:2610.08722v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many long-horizon agents compact their context on a global rule, usually a token budget, blind to what the agent was doing. We ask whether the agent's recent behaviour predicts when a compaction will hurt. TRACE's public corpus of 590 harness-triggered AppWorld compaction boundaries replays each boundary from a re-executed prefix state under the pre-compaction context and under the summary, and records the burden of the next actions: calls that error or repeat a call already made. We find that pre-boundary history predicts post-compaction harm on

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