How High Is 0.6? Floors, Ceilings, and Headroom in Interpretability Probing

arXiv:2610.08544v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probes are the workhorse of interpretability. If a model's hidden states predict a variable, the model is said to represent it. But a probe score has no fixed meaning. An $R^2$ of 0.6 may only reflect what the input already gives away, and the same score can mean different things on different data. We propose reading every probe score against two reference points: a floor, what a declared set of simple inputs already predicts, and a ceiling, what the full input can predict. The gap between them, the headroom, is the range in which a probe can s

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