Market-Conditioned JEPA: Learning from Unpredictable Market Shocks

arXiv:2611.13572v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Much of the variation in financial time series is driven by market-wide shocks that cannot be predicted from an asset's own history. Per-asset self-supervised learning treats this variation as irreducible noise. Under a latent factor model, we show that conditioning prediction on the realized market factor makes the asset's market exposure necessary for optimal prediction, while reducing the noise against which the asset-specific component is learned. Building on this insight, we introduce Market-Conditioned JEPA (MC-JEPA), a joint-embedding pr

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