On the Origin of Algorithmic Progress in AI: Evidence from Language Model Pre-Training

arXiv:2511.21622v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Algorithms have been estimated to increase AI pretraining FLOP efficiency by a factor of 22,000 between 2012 and 2023 (Ho et al., 2024). Running ablation experiments on key innovations from this time period, we are able to account for less than 10x of these gains at small compute scales. Surveying the broader literature, we estimate that additional innovations not included in our ablations also account for less than 10x, yielding less than 100x efficiency gains total in low-compute regimes. This leads us to conduct scaling experiments,

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