What Tracks Hard-Negative Transfer? A Study of Lexical and Semantic Signals

arXiv:2603.20990v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Which properties of hard-negative supervision track dense-retriever transfer before training? We compare lexical noncoverage, frozenencoder similarity statistics, hardness proxies, and combinations of these signals across BM25, dense, LLM-generated, and hybrid sources for MS MARCO training. Evaluation uses three retriever backbones and eleven BEIR datasets. Mean lexical residuality, an IDF-weighted measure of query-token noncoverage, reproduces the aggregate transfer ordering in all six backbone and setting blocks. The individual semant

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